5 April 2016
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Presentation—Introduction to the webinar and panelists
Presentation—Energy Scenarios to 2040
Transcript—Webinar audio transcript
The Clean Energy Solutions Center, in partnership with Enerdata, hosted this webinar on Energy Scenarios to 2040.
Following COP 21 in Paris, Enerdata produced three energy based scenarios up to 2040: the Ener-Blue, Ener-Green and Ener-Brown scenarios. The Ener-Blue scenario provides an outlook of energy systems up to 2040 based on the achievement of the 2030 targets defined in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) as announced at the COP 21. Ener-Green explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies to limit the global temperature increase at around 1.5-2°C by the end of the century. Finally, Ener-Brown describes a world with durably low fossil fuel energy prices, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. These different scenarios explore the consequences on energy supply and demand, energy mix and energy prices by fuel and region, as well as the implications on climate issues.
This webinar provided an overview of the results related to the Ener-Blue scenario (INDCs), its impacts on different energy sources and geographical regions, as well as its challenges in implementation. The webinar also showed what additional commitments are needed to move from the Ener-Blue scenario to the Ener-Green (2°C) scenario, and it presented the consequences of the Ener-Brown scenario which considers an abundance of cheap hydrocarbon resources and their effect on renewables and emissions. Presentations were followed by an interactive question and answer session with the audience.
Manfred Hafner, Partner and Vice-President Consulting, Enerdata
Dr. Manfred Hafner is a recognized expert on energy scenario building, supply-demand assessment, energy policy analysis, market and strategy studies on all energy sources and with a special focus on gas and power markets. During his almost 30 years of working in the field of energy, in which he has consulted extensively for energy companies, governments and international organizations, he has gained considerable world-wide working experience and in particular on European, Middle Eastern, North African, Russian and CIS markets. He has coordinated several major interdisciplinary research projects for the European Commission. He is also a Professor of International Energy at Johns Hopkins University SAIS and Sciences Po Paris. He holds a PhD in Energy Studies from Mines-ParisTech (Ecole des Mines de Paris) and Master’s degrees in energy Engineering, Economics and Policy from the Technische Universität München, the University of Pennsylvania and the Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP-School). Manfred speaks fluently in English, French, German and Italian, and fairly in Spanish and Russian.
Yasmine Arsalane, Project Manager, Global Energy Forecasting, Enerdata
Yasmine Arsalane is a senior analyst specializing in the modeling of energy markets. Yasmine joined Enerdata in 2011 and since then has been involved in several projects for energy companies and government bodies, leveraging the POLES model and other in-house models dedicated to scenario building and analysis. Her fields of expertise cover the modelling of interactions between energy and climate policies, and the potential effects that these may have on energy demand, supply, CO2 emissions and the development of energy prices. Prior to Enerdata, Yasmine was involved in land-use modelling projects in order to conjointly assess energetic system, food demand and the evolution of environmental constraint (CIRED and INRA). Yasmine graduated as an engineer (AgroParisTech and Ensimag) and earned a MSc in Energy and Environmental Economics (ParisTech).